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Banda Aceh-BRIN Public Relations. Two decades have passed since the devastating tsunami struck Aceh on December 26, 2004, leaving a deep mark of sorrow in the hearts of the Indonesian nation and the world. This event not only became one of the deadliest natural disasters in history but also a symbol of human strength, resilience, and solidarity. Aceh, which was devastated at that time, has now risen to become a more resilient region with strengthened infrastructure and a community more aware of disaster mitigation.

In commemoration of the 20th anniversary of the Aceh tsunami, a researcher from the Research Center for Geological Disaster, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, urges the entire community to be more vigilant about the potential disasters that can occur at any time. Rahma emphasized that the potential for a megathrust earthquake in the southern region of Java could occur and trigger a tsunami on a scale similar to that in Aceh. This requires serious attention from stakeholders and the wider community so that they can carefully mitigate the risk of disaster impacts accurately.

Rahma mentioned that based on her research results, the megathrust segment in southern Java, including the Sunda Strait, stores significant tectonic energy and has the potential to release an earthquake with a magnitude of 8,7 to 9,1. "This megathrust potential can trigger a massive earthquake and tsunami, which would propagate through the Sunda Strait to Jakarta with an arrival time of about 2,5 hours," said Rahma after attending the 20th-anniversary commemoration of the Aceh tsunami in Banda Aceh on Thursday (12/26). 

According to simulations conducted by BRIN in collaboration with research teams from various institutions, if a tsunami occurs, wave heights are estimated to reach 20 meters on the southern coast of Java, 3–15 meters in the Sunda Strait, and around 1,8 meters on the northern coast of Jakarta. This research also shows that similar phenomena have occurred in history, such as the 2006 Pangandaran tsunami triggered by a marine landslide near Nusa Kambangan. 

"The energy locked in the southern Java subduction zone continues to increase over time." If released all at once, the tremor will trigger a high tsunami that could have widespread effects, not only in southern Java but also in other coastal areas," she added. 

For that reason, BRIN emphasizes the importance of mitigation through structural and non-structural approaches. Structural approaches include the construction of tsunami barriers, wave breakers, and spatial planning in coastal areas with consideration of a safe distance of 250 meters from the shoreline. 

"The development of coastal forests or natural vegetation such as sea pandanus and mangroves also serves as an ecosystem-based solution to dampen tsunami wave energy," as explained by Rahma. 

Meanwhile, the non-structural approach involves community preparedness through disaster mitigation education, evacuation simulation training, and the provision of adequate evacuation routes and locations. "We must ensure that the community understands the potential dangers of tsunamis, has an effective early warning system, and the ability to respond quickly," she said. 

Meanwhile, for urban areas like Jakarta, which have high population density and soil sediments that are prone to amplifying shocks, earthquake mitigation efforts also include retrofitting or strengthening building structures. "Retrofitting is very important, especially for buildings in densely populated areas, because strong tremors have the potential to cause massive damage and loss of life," she added. 

Meanwhile, for industrial areas like Cilegon, the potential for earthquakes is also feared to trigger fires due to fuel or chemical leaks in large factories. This becomes one of the secondary hazards that need to be anticipated through the implementation of strict safety standards. 

Rahma added that through paleotsunami research, BRIN found that megathrust earthquakes in southern Java have a recurrence period of about 400–600 years. With the last occurrence estimated in 1699, the stored energy has now reached a critical point. "Disasters like the Aceh tsunami teach us that preparedness and disaster mitigation are key to saving lives," emphasized a BRIN researcher.

As a disaster mitigation effort, BRIN keeps collaborating with the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (KKP), BMKG, and other related institutions to strengthen the tsunami early warning system, particularly in the Sunda Strait and the southern region of Java. "One of the efforts being made is the installation of sensors to detect changes in sea surface levels in tsunami-prone areas," she added. 

According to Rahma, the 20th anniversary of the Aceh tsunami serves as a momentum to raise awareness of the potential for similar disasters in the future. With the support of research and technology, BRIN hopes that disaster mitigation can be carried out more systematically and effectively. "We cannot predict when an earthquake will occur, but we can prepare ourselves." Adaptation, education, and collaboration are key to reducing disaster risk," as concluded by Rahma. 

With comprehensive mitigation measures, it is hoped that Indonesia will be ready to face the potential megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis in the future, as well as minimize the resulting damage and losses. (pur/translator:akb)